Eli Lilly's oral obesity treatment efficacy falls short of expectations, says BMO's Evan Seigerman

Market Dynamics & Competition - Novo Nordisk's oral wegovy shows promising 16.6% weight loss with good tolerability, potentially shifting the oral market split [3][4] - The oral wegovy faces a "food effect" issue, requiring specific consumption conditions (fasting, water, waiting 30 minutes), potentially limiting its use to maintenance after initial weight loss with injectables [4][7] - Manufacturing costs for oral wegovy are higher due to the larger peptide dosage (25mg) compared to the weekly injectable (2.4mg) [7] - The weight loss drug space is experiencing pricing headwinds and some pricing concessions, potentially influenced by the CVS exclusive deal [8][9] Company Performance & Expectations - Lilly's stock experienced a significant drop (down 14%) due to data expectations being set too high (above 15% efficacy), raising questions about the long-term strength of their franchise [1][2] - There was a disconnect between Novo Nordisk's positive presentation of their data (27 pounds average weight loss) and the market's expectations [9] - Companies need to learn from competitors' successes and failures in managing expectations and messaging around drug data [13]