Tastytrade's Tom Sosnoff on IPO market: Years of pent-up demand and 'crazy asymmetric speculation'

IPO Market Dynamics - Investor appetite for IPOs is picking up, with companies like Figma, Circle, Chime, and Firefly Aerospace experiencing significant gains on their first trading days [1] - The IPO market is experiencing pent-up demand and asymmetric speculation, with abundant capital seeking high-return, low-risk opportunities [2] - Speculative excess is evident in the market, potentially indicating a frothy environment with red flags [3][4] - Post-IPO volatility can reach 100% to 250%, attracting traders seeking to double their investment [5] IPO Pricing and Insider Advantage - Most individuals cannot participate in IPOs directly, focusing on post-IPO trading, particularly in options markets [6] - Underwriters may intentionally underprice IPOs, benefiting investment banks and insiders who hold restricted stock with a typical 6-month lockup period [8] - Underpricing IPOs creates positive PR and allows insiders to benefit from an initial price surge [9] - A small percentage of outstanding shares traded at a high price can significantly inflate the company's market capitalization [10] Retail Investor Access to Private Markets - There's a push to allow retail investors access to private equity, venture capital, and private credit through 401(k)s, traditionally limited to accredited investors [12] - Advocates argue for self-directed investment choices in 401(k)s, allowing individuals to invest in a wider range of assets [13][14] - Opening private markets to retail investors democratizes the process but also introduces new levels of risk due to less stringent disclosure rules compared to public companies [15] - Opening up private markets is expected to increase market efficiency and foster industry growth, despite potential risks [16][17] Private Equity Investment - The argument that private equity outperforms public markets long-term is primarily due to the lack of day-to-day liquidity, rather than inherent differences in the underlying business [19] - The extended duration of private equity funds (e.g., 7 years) reduces the observed volatility in their P&L, potentially masking the true risk [21]