Seymour: Brazil supplies 31% of U.S. coffee, and that’s a big deal

US-Brazil Trade Relations - Tariffs are viewed as a potentially unsuccessful one-size-fits-all foreign policy tool in the context of the Brazil coffee trade [1] - The US imports approximately 31% of its coffee from Brazil, highlighting the importance of this trade relationship [1] - Despite adversarial headlines, Brazilian markets and the Real have not significantly declined, suggesting resilience [2] - Historically, the US and Brazil have had a solid trading partnership with alignment in geopolitics and foreign policy goals [2] Emerging Markets and Currency Dynamics - Emerging markets, including Brazil, have experienced a renaissance in the last 6 months [2] - Currency movements account for approximately 50% of the success in emerging market investments [3] - The Brazilian Real has rallied, reaching six-week highs against the US dollar [3] - A weaker US dollar is seen as potentially beneficial for the US [4] Brazil Investment Thesis - Fiscal adjustments in Brazil are considered bullish for investment [4] - Investment in Brazil involves a combination of commodities and the middle class [4] - Major commodity players in Brazil, such as Petrobras and Vale, have improved their debt profiles over the last 5 years [4] - Emerging markets have generally rallied since Trump took office, despite the "America First" policy, indicating solid fundamentals [5]