Schwab's Omar Aguilar: Equity market has fueled rally, but volatility in horizon

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - Major indices are tracking to close the week higher, with the S&P and NASDAQ pacing for their third positive week in four, and the Dow on course for its second positive week in three [1] - The market has largely processed economic data, driven by the resilience of the economy and consumer spending [2] - There's a growing possibility of stagflation, with potential inflation increases alongside economic deceleration and signs of a softening labor market [3] - Inflation measures show signs of fatigue, with goods prices potentially driving inflation higher, increasing the likelihood of a stagflation scenario [4] - The market focuses on data trends, such as the direction of the labor market and unemployment rate, rather than specific data points [6] Investment Strategies & Sector Performance - Companies with strong profit margins and solid free cash flow yields are performing well, supported by capital expenditure and profit margin expansion [7] - Sectors not investing in AI or reducing labor face margin squeeze due to potential supply chain price increases, leading to negative outlooks [8][9] - International markets, particularly Europe, are showing strength due to stronger economies and a weaker dollar, presenting diversification opportunities [11][12] - MSCI World Index XUS is up about 18% this year, compared to about 8% for the S&P 500, signaling a rebalancing of capital flows [10] Data Quality & Market Reaction - Uncertainty in data is inherent, with revisions being common due to the dynamic nature of information gathering [5] - The market is adept at understanding data ranges and focusing on trends rather than specific data points [6] CPI & Fed Policy - CPI is expected to pick up, potentially causing a market reaction, and influencing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [14][15]