We are seeing a slowing of the economy from the data, says Natixis' Jack Janasiewicz

Inflation & Tariffs - Recent data suggests inflation is emerging, particularly in goods prices due to tariffs, but services inflation continues [2] - The spread between goods and services inflation is key; a widening spread favoring goods inflation could be concerning [3] Labor Market & Consumption - Data indicates a slowing economy, with the labor market being a focal point due to its impact on consumption [4][5] - Weaknesses are apparent in the jobs report, including the employment-to-population ratio, labor force participation rate, and jobs diffusion index [5] - It remains uncertain whether the weakness in the labor market will accelerate in the near term [5] GDP & Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure (CapEx) is a significant driver of GDP, outpacing consumption in the second quarter [6][7] - AI is currently the main factor driving CapEx spend [7] - A potential rollover in CapEx spend, particularly related to AI, could have significant implications [7]