Timeline for AGI: 2030 with 50% chance
Lex Fridmanยท2025-08-08 23:23
you've estimated that we'll have AGI by 2030. How will we actually know that we got there and uh what maybe quote move 37 of AGI. >> So I think there's the sort of blanket testing to just make sure you got the consistency but I think there are the sort of lighthouse moments like the move 37 that I would be looking for.So one would be inventing a new conjecture or a new hypothesis about physics like Einstein did. So maybe you could even run the back test of that very rigorously like have a cut off of knowled ...