We could have the traditional October drawdown this year, says Stephen Suttmeier

Market Seasonality & Trends - The market typically experiences a summer rally from May through July, with the first year of the presidential cycle showing an average increase of approximately 5.5%, this year reaching 13.8% [2] - Seasonality tends to turn negative from August through October, potentially leading to market backing and filling [2][3] - A traditional scary October drawdown is anticipated based on studied data [3] Key Technical Levels - Support levels are identified at 6100 to 6200, while resistance is around 6600 [4] - The cyclical uptrend that began in April is expected to rally into the 6400-6600 area by year-end [4] - A dip could test rising 26 and 40 week moving averages around 5900 [4][5][6] Yield Curve Analysis - The 30-year yield rebound towards 5% could be forming a rising wedge, suggesting a potential downside break towards 4.4% or even 4% [8] - The five-year yield might be forming a distribution top, indicating a potential decrease if it breaks lower [8] - Continued steepening in the yield curve is anticipated, potentially leading to 2 or 3 rate cuts this year [9] Investment Focus - The current long-term secular bull market favors larger companies, leading to outperformance of the largest stocks [10] - Growth stocks are showing strong performance versus value stocks across market caps in the US, with new relative highs for Russell 1000 growth versus Russell 1000 value, S&P growth versus S&P value, and small cap growth versus small cap value [11] - Internationally, value is breaking out versus growth, presenting a different dynamic [12]