US-China Tariff Truce Extension: Ex-Trade Diplomat on Negotiations, Export Controls

Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The current trade negotiations between the US and China are proceeding at a slower pace compared to previous deals [1] - Both sides have agreed to a tariff rollover, allowing them to focus on key outstanding issues such as export controls, critical minerals, and excess capacity [1] - The US administration may be internally divided on the approach to China, particularly regarding export controls [6] Export Controls and National Security - The US position on export controls has historically been that they are non-negotiable due to national security concerns [3] - The Trump administration's openness to discussing export controls has created an opportunity for China to seek rollbacks of existing restrictions [4] - The US faces a decision on whether to supply China with chips and high-tech goods needed for its advanced A I industry [5] China's Leverage - China is in a stronger negotiating position compared to the Phase one trade talks, leveraging its control over critical minerals and magnets [7] - China may use its leverage to seek a more balanced deal with the US [7] - China could use its access to rare earths to its advantage in the negotiations [6] Potential Outcomes and Risks - A limited deal may be reached, with a process established to address unresolved issues [8][9] - Emerging issues could be put on the table, but time is limited [8] - If the US doesn't offer terms that China finds acceptable, new issues could be introduced during the next 90 days [8]