Bullish Treasuries Drivers are History: 3-Minute MLIV

Market Impact of CPI Data - A clearly strong CPI data set could disrupt both stocks and bonds markets [1] - Strong CPI data may hinder the Federal Reserve's dovish pivot, making interest rate cuts less likely [2] - Elevated CPI data could raise stagflation concerns and increase scrutiny on the US fiscal outlook [2] - Higher-than-expected CPI figures, even slightly above consensus, could cause market problems [6] - A high CPI print could lead to a sell-off in Treasuries, lower stock prices, and a knee-jerk reaction of dollar strength [5] US Fiscal Outlook and Treasury Market - Factors that previously supported a bullish view on Treasuries have shifted to bearish [4] - Recent Treasury auctions have been poor, reflecting concrete mood changes regarding the US debt burden [3][4] - Fiscal measures are now impacting expected US debt payments over the next year [4] - Tariffs may soon contribute to inflation [4] - Ten-year Treasury yields are expected to rise substantially over the coming six months to a year, potentially testing multi-year highs [8][9]