Economic growth will be even better if rates are aligned with the fundamentals, says Joe Lavorgna

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - Treasury Secretary suggested the Fed should consider a 50 basis points (0.5%) rate cut at the next meeting in September [1] - The market has indicated for three years that monetary policy is too tight, as the ten-year Treasury yield has been trading below the Fed funds rate [10] - The Fed's own standards suggest interest rates are well above neutral [9] - There is pressure for lower rates, and the list of potential replacements for Jay Powell is expanding [19] - Lower rates would help interest-sensitive sectors of the economy like housing, autos, and manufacturing [23] Trade & Tariffs - President Trump is trying to protect U S business and industry through negotiations with China [2] - The Nvidia chip export tax is being considered as a model for others, potentially moving towards industrial policy [4] - National security concerns are a significant factor in trade policy [3][5] Data & Economic Indicators - Concerns exist regarding the integrity and quality of BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) data due to patterns and magnitude of revisions [7][8][13] - There is a need for more rigorous quantitative standards for economic data [7] - The trend in payroll growth has slowed [9] - The economy rebounded in the second quarter, and growth in the third quarter looks good [31]