Ukraine-Russia peace talks take place on Friday. Here's what you can expect

Geopolitical Risks & Potential Outcomes - Abandonment of Ukraine would be a horror scenario for Ukraine, NATO, and the United States [1] - Best case scenario: Trump realizes he's been manipulated by Putin and increases support for Ukraine, including sanctions [2][3] - Most likely scenario: A positive meeting leading to further talks, potentially including Zelensky [4] - Trump reassured European leaders he won't make decisions about Ukraine without them, focusing on a ceasefire rather than land swaps [5] - The situation is uncertain due to the unpredictable nature of Trump's actions [5][16] Sanctions & Economic Impact - Trump hates the bloodshed in Ukraine, especially after Putin's actions [8] - The "moral equivalent" to military action against Russia is getting tough on sanctions and providing security guarantees to Ukraine [9][10] - Existing sanctions haven't been fully enforced, partly due to concerns about raising oil prices to $140 per barrel and gasoline to $6 [11] - There's potential to get tougher on oil sanctions, including secondary sanctions on countries like India and China [12] - Trump has threatened a 50% tariff on India partly due to its oil purchases from Russia, signaling a willingness to get tougher [13] - The Biden administration was hesitant to enforce oil sanctions due to inflationary concerns and potential impact on the presidential election [14] Trump's Stance & Motivation - Trump doesn't like being humiliated or played along, but his response to Putin's actions has been slow [15] - Trump aims to achieve something in the negotiations with Putin [6] - Trump told European leaders that Putin will face consequences if he doesn't stop the war [7]