The consumer is under more pressure now, says Bernstein's Danilo Gargiulo

Market Trends & Consumer Behavior - A divergence exists between fast casual and full-service restaurants, potentially influenced by pricing [2][3] - Fast casual restaurants have historically taken less price increases compared to quick service restaurants, attracting incremental consumer spending and traffic [6] - A normalization of trends is occurring, with consumers recognizing that full dining settings may offer better value [6][7] - The consumer is leaning into value, but the perception of value has shifted as fast casual prices compete with dining-in options [7] - Higher-income consumers of quick service restaurants are trading up to fast casual for perceived better value for money [8] - Lower-income consumers are facing pressure, leading to some fading away from the entire restaurant sector [8][9] Pricing Strategies - For approximately $20, consumers can dine in a full-service restaurant, whereas the same amount might only buy a bowl in central Manhattan [3] - Quick service restaurants have taken even more price increases than fast casual restaurants [7] Impact on Restaurant Categories - Casual dining restaurants like Chili's and Olive Garden are bringing back value offerings [7] - The pressure on lower-income consumers is not being offset by the up-trading of higher-income consumers, resulting in a net negative impact on overall restaurant demand [8][9]