There's tactical downside risk for yields through month-end, says BofA's Paul Ciana

Yield Trends & Analysis - BFA Securities' technical analysis indicates yields have been trading in a narrowing, trendless range over the past year [2] - Tactical downside risk for yields is expected through the end of the month or Labor Day, driven by the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average [4] - The "death cross" formation suggests a move towards the lower end of the range, targeting 405% to 410% [4][5] - A potential rebound to 440% in September is possible if yields base at the lower end of the range [6] Stock Market Implications - Historically, when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average for US 10-year yields, the S&P 500 tends to rise 45 to 55 trading days later [8] - Lower yields could allow the tech sector to outperform, further boosting the S&P 500 [8] - BFA Securities has an S&P 500 target of at least 6,500 and upwards of 6,625 this summer [8] - Lower yields may be necessary for equities to reach their final upward thrust [9]