RBC's Croft on Trump-Putin talks: Russian gas flowing into Europe is 'getting way too ahead'

Geopolitical & Economic Context - The meeting between President Trump and Vladimir Putin is critical due to its potential impact on global energy prices [1] - Sanctions relief for Russia is being considered, potentially allowing Russian oil and gas to flow back into Europe [2] - The US has not imposed significant sanctions on Russian energy entities like Rosneft and Gazprom [3] - Russian energy is flowing into Asia, providing Russia with financial resources to continue its military efforts [4] - Russia's economy has not suffered as much as expected due to continued energy sales [5] - Russia is using its financial resources to pay soldiers, potentially recruiting 1,000 people a day, which is double the recruitment rate of Ukraine [5][9][11] - Russia's ability to fund the war, coupled with Ukraine receiving weapons, suggests a prolonged conflict [6] - Both Trump and Biden administrations want to avoid high oil prices, which could result from stricter sanctions on Russia [7] Energy Market Impact - Stricter sanctions on Russia could lead to oil prices rising to $100-120 per barrel [8] - The current approach avoids secondary sanctions on Russian energy companies to prevent higher energy prices for the sanctioning countries [9] - Russia's "ghost fleet" of uninsured or underinsured ships facilitates continued oil sales despite sanctions [8] Socioeconomic Factors - Russia is described as a poor nation, where the opportunity to earn a few thousand dollars motivates men to become mercenaries [10] - Desperate men are being recruited to fight for money, even at the risk of death [5][11]