Fed should cut rates but they're weighing inflation more than employment, says Apollo's Torsten Slok

Federal Reserve Policy - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve (Fed) to potentially cut rates, influenced by conflicting signals from inflation and employment data [2][3] - There is internal debate within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding whether to prioritize inflation or growth concerns [3][4] - The market is closely watching for guidance from the Fed chair, as his stance will be critical in shaping committee consensus [9][10][11] - Dissent within the FOMC is growing, potentially leading to a divided committee and a challenging press conference for the chair [11][12][13][14][15] Inflation and Market Expectations - The market is pricing in inflation above the Fed's 2% target in one year's time, as indicated by one-year ahead inflation swaps trading at 33% [11] - The market has adjusted its expectations regarding the number of rate cuts, initially anticipating three cuts but now expecting closer to two [18] Economic Outlook and Trade - Concerns exist about a potential trade-related slowdown, particularly in the context of ongoing trade wars [20] - Simulations suggest that raising the effective tariff rate from 3% to 18% could decrease GDP by 07%, but not necessarily lead to a recession [21][22]