Ambassador McFaul on being in the room with Pres. Putin during a negotiation

Geopolitical Analysis of US-Russia Relations - The meeting between President Trump and President Putin is seen as a victory for Putin, regardless of the outcome, due to his status as an indicted war criminal meeting with the US President on US soil [2][3][4] - Concerns exist that Trump may pursue a deal that involves swapping or seeding Ukrainian territory, which would reward imperialism and set a dangerous precedent for international security [4][7] - Russia's goals in Ukraine include annexing four regions in addition to Crimea, establishing a subservient government in Kyiv, preventing NATO membership for Ukraine, and weakening the country's military capabilities [38][39] - Ukraine's stated goal is to restore its 1991 borders, including the four eastern regions and Crimea, but realistically, a deal might involve Ukraine agreeing to reunify the country only through peaceful means in exchange for security guarantees, ideally NATO membership [39][40][41][42] - NATO membership for Ukraine could freeze the borders and deter further Russian aggression, similar to the situation in divided Germany during the Cold War [42][43] Negotiation Dynamics and Potential Outcomes - Putin is a seasoned negotiator with extensive experience and knowledge, potentially giving him an advantage over Trump, who may lack detailed knowledge of the history and complexities of the conflict [15][16][17][18] - Putin may exploit Trump's desire to be seen as a dealmaker by offering economic incentives or concessions on other issues, such as arms control, to gain Trump's favor and potentially constrain Ukraine [21][30][37] - The presence of economic advisors in the Russian delegation suggests that Russia is aiming for a broader discussion of US-Russia relations and economic cooperation, potentially appealing to Trump's business-oriented mindset [22][23] - A one-on-one meeting between Trump and Putin without notetakers or advisors is considered risky, as it could lead to disagreements about what was agreed upon and potentially result in a summit like Helsinki, which was widely criticized [19][47][49][50][53] - The lack of pre-negotiated deliverables for the summit is unusual, as presidential time is a valuable commodity that should be used strategically to achieve specific outcomes [56][57][59][60] Potential Risks and Concerns - The US's inconsistent stance on the war in Ukraine, particularly Trump's signaling of a potential pullback in military assistance, could embolden Putin and prolong the conflict [10][11] - There is concern that Trump may be tempted to make a deal that benefits Russia at the expense of Ukraine and international security, driven by his desire to be seen as a successful dealmaker [34][37] - Putin's tactics in meetings include being late, talking at length, staring intensely, and avoiding the need to cut a deal quickly, which can be advantageous in negotiations [24][25][26][29]