Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Market Trend Prediction - The analysis suggests Bitcoin is likely to revisit the bull market support band, specifically the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA, potentially in September [3][4] - Historical data indicates that post-halving years for Bitcoin have typically seen green months in July and August, followed by a red September [3][4] - The report considers a scenario where a Federal Reserve rate cut in September could lead to a negative reaction in the bond market, potentially driving the 10-year yield up to 5%, impacting Bitcoin [7][8][10] - Analysis draws parallels between Bitcoin's current valuation and its performance in 2020, noting similarities in market capitulation in Q1 [14] Altcoin Impact - A Bitcoin pullback to the 20-week SMA could result in a 20-30% drop for Ethereum and a 30-50% drop for altcoins [15] - Altcoins are expected to remain strong against Bitcoin until September, with a larger correction anticipated when Bitcoin revisits the 20-week SMA [16] Technical Analysis - The bull market support band is defined by the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) [3] - Bitcoin stalled around $12,470 in 2020 before correcting to the 20-week SMA in September, a level that has been replicated recently [14]