AEI's Pethokoukis: Ukraine war’s near-term impact will have long-term effects on global economy

Geopolitical Strategy & Security - A ceasefire declaration involving Putin, Zalinsky, and European backing is seen as the best possible near-term outcome [3] - A freeze in place, recognizing current territorial lines without control, could be a positive step [6] - Potential security guarantees for Ukraine, involving European and possibly US involvement, could facilitate a ceasefire by maintaining Ukraine's current territory [7] - Crimea is considered off the table for both Putin and Zalinsky [4] - The Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk) remains a key area of debate [5] Economic & Business Impact - The conflict has disrupted aviation, shipping, oil, and agriculture, with many businesses ceasing operations in Russia [9] - A ceasefire could potentially halt disruption, benefiting both the Russian and Ukrainian economies in the short term [10][11] - Long-term concerns exist regarding a rejuvenated Russian military attempting to seize more of Ukraine, impacting global peace, prosperity, and democratic expansion [11]