A lot still needs to happen before Ukraine-Russia peace deal: intelligence expert Kendall-Taylor

Security Guarantees for Ukraine - A US-European security guarantee for Ukraine is crucial for its sovereignty and independence, potentially allowing for territorial compromises [3][7] - The US willingness to participate in a future security guarantee for Ukraine is positive, but the details are critical [7] - Russia's potential restrictions on Ukraine's military size and the presence of NATO/European troops pose challenges to reaching a security guarantee agreement [8] European Strategic Role - Europe faces a strategic moment where it must increase its defense spending and security responsibilities due to wavering US commitment and Russian threats [10] - Europe currently lacks the military capabilities, especially in heavy lift and air defense, to provide a security guarantee for Ukraine [11] - The US should help bridge the gap while Europe takes on more of the burden in defense spending year after year [14] Ceasefire and Peace Deal - A ceasefire is considered necessary, with European officials expressing concern over the direction of the situation [2] - Achieving a security guarantee agreement and a territorial agreement will be very difficult, but recent developments offer a potential opening [12][13] - The process is expected to be a marathon, requiring long-term commitment [15]