Mortgage rates are too high to get things moving again, says HousingWire's Logan Mohtashami

Market Overview & Mortgage Rates - Single-family permits have been declining, impacting smaller builders disproportionately [1][2] - High mortgage rates are hindering housing market recovery; a rate of 6% is seen as a potential catalyst for improvement [2] - Housing market performance tends to improve around a 6% mortgage rate, but maintaining this rate is crucial [3] - Achieving sub-6% mortgage rates is challenging given current Federal Reserve policy and inflation levels [4] - Bond market anticipation has already factored in a 2% rate decrease from 8% in 2023 to 6% in 2024, even without Fed rate cuts [7] Housing Sales & Demand - New home sales remain near 2019 levels, indicating existing demand, but are sensitive to rate fluctuations between 6% and 7% [5] - Existing home sales remain low, while new home sales have been relatively stable since 2018 [5] - The market is missing approximately 1 million mortgage buyers compared to the peak of the last decade, which saw nearly 6 million total home sales [10] Economic Factors & Future Outlook - Residential renovation projects are slowing down, signaling a potential economic downturn [6] - Weaker labor data is needed to potentially drive mortgage rates lower under current Fed policy [8] - Improved mortgage spreads are a positive sign for the rest of the year and into 2026, potentially allowing for lower rates even without significant yield drops [9] - Historically, housing markets recover through wage growth, household formation, and eventual rate decreases [10][12] - Getting mortgage rates down to 6% and holding them there is necessary to stimulate single-family permits, housing construction, and job creation [12]