Rebecca Patterson: Inflation being higher & stickier changes how the 10Y is reacting to policy

Housing Market & Interest Rates - Lowering the Fed rate might help consumers buy homes by injecting liquidity into the market, but other factors complicate the situation [1] - Mortgage rates are based on the 10-year yield, not the Fed funds rate; rate cuts don't automatically translate to cheaper mortgages [2][3] - Last year, Fed rate cuts spurred expectations for growth and inflation, pushing up the 10-year yield and hurting housing [3] - The belief that Fed cuts automatically lead to cheaper mortgages is not universally held; while it often happens, it didn't last year [4] Inflation & Monetary Policy - Higher and stickier inflation changes how the 10-year yield reacts to policy changes; bonds may not behave the same way to Fed cuts as in the past 20 years due to a different inflationary environment [5][6] - Equities are potentially a better inflation hedge than bonds, questioning bonds' role as a diversifier [6] - The labor market is showing signs of softening, which could lead to the Fed cutting rates and potentially pulling down long-term yields and inflation [8][9] Labor Market & AI Impact - 34% of CEOs surveyed by the Conference Board expect job cuts in the next 12 months, the first time those expecting cuts outnumbered those expecting to hire since COVID [8] - Companies are expected to accelerate job cuts to control costs [9] - Companies are investing in AI and training their staffs, but the timing and degree of AI's disinflationary impact are uncertain [10][11] - Companies are pressured to invest in AI, which requires upfront spending and may lead to headcount reductions to offset costs [11][12]