比特幣見頂？BTC派發區間？這條線不能跌破！ETH呢？

Market Analysis & Potential Risks - Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness with a potential for a significant drop if key support levels are breached, specifically the previous high point which, if broken, could trigger a bearish weekly MACD crossover [1] - The analyst is closely watching for a potential Wyckoff distribution pattern, suggesting possible shorting opportunities if rallies occur within the identified range, especially given the weekly MACD divergence [1] - Historical Bitcoin halving cycles suggest a potential peak approximately 500+ days post-halving, aligning with the next month, which could present a major top if preceded by a period of consolidation and a final surge [1] - Ethereum is currently retesting previous highs and could continue its upward trend after a period of consolidation, but a failure to hold these levels could lead to a significant correction [2] Trading Strategies & Key Levels - The analyst advises caution against buying dips, suggesting that any downward movements should be viewed with skepticism until a clear bottom is established [1] - A break below 111,870 USDT on the Baby Bitcoin chart could signal a distribution phase, warranting close monitoring [1] - For Ethereum, a break of the downward trendline followed by a successful retest could present a short-term buying opportunity, while a failure to rebound after hitting key support levels would negate the bullish outlook [2] - The analyst emphasizes the importance of avoiding the "fish head and tail" of market trends, focusing instead on capturing the main body of the trend and being wary of chasing tops or trying to time the absolute bottom [1]