Oaktree's Howard Marks Says US Stocks Hint at 'Early Days' of a Bubble

Market Sentiment & Valuation - The market appears expensive relative to fundamentals, potentially due to the absence of a significant correction in 16 years [1] - Investors often mistakenly believe current market conditions will persist indefinitely, ignoring the likelihood of reversion to the mean [2] - Market fluctuations are largely driven by psychological factors, with investors transitioning from neutrality to excessive optimism, creating bubbles [3] - The current environment, with assets being liked "a little bit too much," is reminiscent of the late 1990s when the market was enamored with tech stocks [4] - Alan Greenspan's caution about "irrational exuberance" in 1997 serves as a reminder that market rallies can continue for years even after concerns are raised [5] Investment Strategy & Risk - Equity investing has been highly successful, especially with leverage and concentration in a few stocks [2] - Investors are inherently optimistic, which can be a risk factor [2]