Market Overview & Potential Pullback - The market experienced a surge, with the S&P 500 up 29% and NASDAQ up 40% since April 8th [3] - A 5% to 10% pullback would be reasonable and healthy, with expectations of buyers stepping in [3] - The NASDAQ is less than 3% from an all-time high, suggesting the current situation isn't a serious pullback for major averages [4] - A significant pullback (e g, 6%) would likely require a trigger, such as disappointing comments from Jay Powell, weak jobs numbers implying a recession, or disappointing Nvidia earnings [6] Key Stocks & Earnings - "Mag Seven" companies' earnings grew 23% as a group, with high profit margins [8] - Deals with the government could provide downside protection for these companies regarding antitrust, anti-competitive behavior, and foreign employee restrictions [8] - Arius Asset Management owns Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, and Broadcom [9] Consumer Spending & Retail - The consumer has not fallen off a cliff due to continued employment and discretionary income [15] - Home Depot numbers were a relief, though not exceptionally good, with same-store sales up 13% [13] - Target's numbers were weak [13] - TJX's numbers were good, indicating consumers are looking for bargains [14] Portfolio Concentration - The "Mag Seven" stocks represent 29% of the market cap in Arius Asset Management's portfolio [10] - These companies are experiencing earnings growth of 23-24% and have average operating profit margins of 40% [10]
A market pullback of 5-10% is natural and healthy, says Aureus' Kari Firestone
CNBC Televisionยท2025-08-21 11:19