50 Point Fed Rate Cut Is Off the Table, Sonders Says

Federal Reserve Policy - The market sell-off coincides with rising risk of no rate cut [1] - Attention is focused on the labor market as a key factor influencing the Fed's decisions, despite earlier FOMC minutes emphasizing inflation [2][3][5] - A 50 basis points rate cut is unlikely, with the probability of a 25 basis points cut decreasing to 77% from nearly 100% [4] - The Fed previously cut rates aggressively based on perceived labor market weakness [6] Labor Market - A weak July labor market report could trigger the Fed to act, even without inflation reaching the target [3] - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on maintaining stable prices and full employment [7] Tariffs and Consumer Spending - Retailers report mixed impacts from tariffs, with some initially absorbing costs but later changing their approach [9][10] - The impact of tariffs is difficult to assess due to ongoing announcements, delays, and rate adjustments [10] - Inflation data and company reports show a bifurcated impact, with some companies benefiting from front-run ordering and inventory building [11]