Google search threat shifts to AI

Antitrust Trial & Potential Outcomes - A judge is expected to rule on remedies for Google's search antitrust trial, potentially ending search exclusivity deals [1] - The DOJ seeks to ban Google from paying companies like Apple and Mozilla $26 billion annually to be the default search engine [1] - Antitrust economists suggest these payments are more like "innovation insurance" than demand drivers [2] - Google's proposed fix includes shorter contracts, multiple providers, and no blanket exclusivity [4] Market Share & Competition - In Europe, where users choose their default search engine, Google maintains a 90% market share [2] - Microsoft's $100 billion investment in Bing has not created a viable alternative to Google [2] - Apple testified that Google delivers better results and monetizes more effectively [3] AI & Future Implications - The DOJ warns that Google could repeat its monopoly playbook with Gemini and seeks remedies to prevent exclusive distribution deals for its AI apps [4] - Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai testified about a near Gemini deal with Apple, similar to OpenAI's integration with Siri [5] - Perplexity, an AI-powered search engine, handles approximately 15 million queries daily, compared to Google's 10 billion [5] Financial Impact - Wall Street anticipates upside, as slashing tens of billions in traffic acquisition costs could increase margins [3]