Bar Is High for Another Rate Cut, Says ECB's Nagel

Central Bank Independence & Monetary Policy - Central bank independence is crucial for price stability and economic growth [2][5] - The speaker emphasizes the need to fight for central bank independence, drawing on Germany's post-1948 experience [3][4][5] - The speaker expects Jerome Powell to deliver a clear message on price stability and the central bank's mandate [7] Interest Rate & Inflation - The speaker believes interest rates are currently in equilibrium at 2%, aligning with the target [8][9] - The speaker suggests inflation is potentially no longer the primary concern, but disinflation risks need monitoring [9][10] - Service inflation remains high, above 3%, necessitating a wait-and-see approach to monetary policy [10][11] Economic Outlook - A mild recession in Germany is possible this year, but economic growth is expected to return next year [7][8] - The speaker notes the potential for imported disinflation from a strengthening Euro and cheap Chinese goods [10] - The bar for cutting interest rates is high, requiring significant evidence to warrant a change in monetary policy [12]