Powell Highlights State of the Economy, Labor Market at Jackson Hole Speech

Economic Conditions & Policy Stance - The economy faced new challenges, including significantly higher tariffs from trading partners reshaping the global trading system [2] - Tighter immigration policies led to an abrupt slowdown in labor force growth [2] - Changes in tax, spending, and regulatory policies may have important implications for economic growth and productivity [3] - Downside risks to employment are rising, potentially leading to sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment [4] - The policy rate is now 100 basis points (1%) closer to neutral than a year ago [6] - Monetary policy is not on a preset course; decisions are based on data assessment and its implications for the economic outlook and balance of risks [7] Inflation & Employment - Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, while risks to employment are tilted to the downside in the near term [5] - The labor market appears to be in balance, but it's a balance resulting from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers [3] - The stability of the unemployment rate allows for careful consideration of policy stance changes [6] Monetary Policy Implications - The framework calls for balancing both sides of the dual mandate (inflation and employment) [6] - With policy in restrictive territory, the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting the policy stance [6] - The restrictive policy stance was appropriate to help bring down inflation and foster a sustainable balance between aggregate demand and supply [1]