Fed Chair Powell had a surprising dovish stance, says Fmr. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren

Monetary Policy Stance - The speech was perceived as mildly dovish, with language suggesting a potential tilt towards easing [1][2][4] - The speaker highlighted the phrase "policy in restrictive territory, it may warrant adjusting our policy stance" as indicative of a dovish tilt [2] - The Fed faces the challenge of balancing restrictive policy with inflation potentially remaining in the 3% range over the next 6 months [5] - The speaker believes the Fed's stance is slightly restrictive [5] Inflation and Labor Market - Professional forecasters expect inflation measures to start with a 3, not a 2, for the next two quarters [3] - Downside risks are present in the labor market, potentially impacting wage hikes [2] - The speaker believes unemployment risks may be overweighted compared to inflation risks [5] - The labor market is slowing down compared to previous periods [5] Future Outlook and Data Dependency - The speaker emphasizes that the potential policy adjustment is not a promise but contingent on upcoming data [6][7] - Key data releases before the September meeting include a CPI report, a PCE report, and an unemployment report [6] - The Fed has left the door open to adjust its course if the data deviates significantly from the current trend [6]