Collins Says Next Fed Decision Not a Done Deal

Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - The industry acknowledges a complicated economic context with mixed indicators, requiring a balanced approach to the dual mandate of inflation versus labor [1][2] - The industry recognizes upside risks to inflation related to tariffs and downside risks on the labor market, necessitating a balancing act in monetary policy decisions [4] - The industry emphasizes the importance of real-time decision-making amidst uncertainty, balancing data analysis with insights from companies regarding employment and pricing plans [4][5] - The industry notes that while job growth has slowed, some labor market indicators remain healthy, suggesting a need for careful consideration of downside risks [7] - The industry observes that inflation has crept higher, moving in the wrong direction compared to previous expectations [8] - The industry anticipates inflation to remain elevated for the rest of the year into early next year, potentially with a larger and more persistent impact due to tariff impacts [12] - The industry views current monetary policy as modestly restrictive, appropriate for elevated inflation, but acknowledges the need to dial back restrictiveness if labor market risks worsen relative to inflation [17][18] Inflation & Tariffs - The industry is focused on the impact of tariffs on prices, considering not just direct imports but also the broader range of goods and services relying on imported intermediate goods [10][11] - The industry expresses concern about high price levels and the importance of restoring price stability [10] Labor Market - The industry is balancing the commitment to restoring price stability with the understanding that preserving healthy labor markets is crucial [14] - The industry sees risks on both sides, with the potential for a rapid rise in unemployment or a more long-term, steady rise in inflation [15]