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There's no particular rush to lower interest rates, says Ed Yardeni
CNBC Televisionยท2025-08-25 11:53

Inflation & Monetary Policy - Tariffs are preventing the inflation rate from decreasing to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2% target, with inflation currently around 3% [2][3] - The market anticipates the tariff effect to be temporary, but the administration is considering additional tariffs, such as on furniture [2] - Services inflation remains relatively high, contributing to the Fed's difficulty in reaching its 2% inflation target [3] - A 25 basis points rate cut in September may be misguided due to inflation concerns and the economy's resilience [3] - The Fed's shift in tone, suggesting a possible adjustment, has excited the market about a potential "Fed put" [5] Economic Resilience & Employment - The economy is still resilient, despite controversial opinions and a lower-than-expected July payroll employment report [4] - July's payroll employment report showed a 73,000 increase, which is relatively low, but an increase nonetheless [4] - An expected increase of 100,000 in the August employment number is closer to the break-even rate needed to maintain a 4% unemployment rate [4] Bond Market & Interest Rates - Despite expectations of Fed easing, the bond market remains relatively flat, with yields around 427% [7][8] - Last year, when the Fed lowered rates by 100 basis points, bond yields increased by 100 basis points [8] - Lowering rates may not necessarily decrease bond yields or mortgage rates [9] Equity Market & Valuations - The market is in a bull market, with the question being whether it will experience a melt-up phase [10] - The forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio on the S&P 500 is 22, which is considered high [10] - The Buffett ratio (price over sales ratio of the S&P 500) is at an all-time high, indicating valuations are not cheap [11] - Earnings have significantly exceeded expectations in the first and second quarters [11] - The analyst's S&P 500 targets are 6,600 by the end of the year and 7,500 next year, which could be reached sooner if the Fed delivers a "Fed put" [12] - The "Magnificent 7" stocks account for 30% of the S&P 500's market capitalization [14]