Tariffs more likely to be a one-off event and won't impact prices much, says Booth's Randy Kroszner

Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - The Fed previously adopted a "wait and see" approach regarding tariffs, but now believes their impact is likely to be a one-off event [2] - The market anticipates a potential softening of the labor market, evidenced by labor market revisions [4] - The Fed's policy decisions are influenced by revisions to employment numbers and forecasts of the labor market's future trajectory [8] - The Fed is reducing its balance sheet and is closely monitoring markets for disruptions, with the pace potentially slowing if the economy weakens [12][13] Labor Market Dynamics - A significant portion, approaching half, of the unemployed have been out of work for 15 weeks or more, indicating a core group facing difficulty in finding employment [9] - There are concerns that the job market could deteriorate, particularly when considering unemployment rates for teenagers and those in their early 20s [10] - The impact of technology on the job market is still uncertain, with conflicting reports on its effects on coding and other opportunities [11] Inflation & Interest Rates - The Fed is closer to full employment than its inflation target, leading to a cautious approach of holding rates at a slightly restrictive level [6] - The market anticipates that PCE data will not show a significant flare-up in inflation [7] - The Fed is becoming more forward-leaning on interest rate cuts [9]