BCA's Peter Berezin says AI boom having less of an economic impact than believed

AI Productivity Impact - Aggregate productivity data does not yet reflect a significant impact from GenAI, with output per hour worked growing at a similar rate to pre-ChatGPT projections [1][2] - The broad-based positive impact of AI on productivity may take longer to materialize, similar to the delayed impact of computers in the late 20th century [3][4] - Some sectors are experiencing productivity gains from AI, but these gains are not yet widespread [6] Profitability Concerns - Increased productivity due to AI may not immediately translate into increased profits for investors, potentially mirroring the delay seen during the dot-com era [6][7] - The lack of network effects in AI, unlike companies like Meta or Microsoft, poses a risk to widespread profitability across industries [8][9] - AI's high capital expenditure requirements, similar to the airline industry, could limit overall profitability despite its importance for economic growth [10][11] Investment Considerations - Investors may not be patient enough to wait for productivity numbers and profits from AI to improve [4] - While some companies like Nvidia are seeing profits from AI, many others are incurring costs to implement it [8] - The commoditization of AI technologies, such as neural net transformer architectures, could further challenge profitability [11]