Kaiser: Intel is Too Big to Fail

Semiconductor Industry & Government Investment - The U S government's potential investment in Intel is viewed as a utility play to build domestic refinery capacity and capability, rather than a sovereign wealth fund play [2] - Government support for Intel is considered crucial due to its size and importance to national security, especially given global political pressures related to Taiwan [3][6] - Intel's potential to become a TSMC substitute or backup is highlighted, with the government potentially motivating Nvidia and AMD to commit volume to Intel's fab and packaging [5] - Transforming Intel into a third-party refining business model, similar to TSMC, and building a domestic supply chain is seen as a decade-long project [7][11][12] Nvidia's Performance & Supply Chain - Nvidia's data center revenue is facing supply constraints rather than demand issues, with Blackwell chips and TSMC capacity sold out well into next year [13][14] - Despite supply chain bottlenecks, Nvidia's revenue met forecasts, indicating strong performance [14] - CoreWeave's earnings report shows 200% year-over-year growth with EBIT margins north of 60%, reflecting positive trends in the sector [15] Technology & Competition - Export-ready versions of Nvidia's Blackwell chip are significantly ahead of domestic Chinese alternatives, and the gap is expected to widen with future Rubin chipsets and TSMC's advancements [18] - TSMC is expanding its global footprint with 15 new fabs and plans to begin packaging in its Arizona facility, addressing critical supply chain vulnerabilities [10]