FedWatch's Ben Emons on why next week's economic data may reshape rate cut expectations

Fed Policy & Rate Cuts - The market is closely watching the Fed's next move regarding rate cuts, particularly the timing and magnitude, and whether political influence is a factor [1] - The market currently prices in an 85% expectation of a rate cut, but a strong payroll report (e.g., 300,000-400,000 jobs) with positive revisions could cause the Fed and the market to reconsider [5] - Labor data is crucial for justifying potential rate cuts, as highlighted by Waller, Bowman, and Powell [2] - The Fed might decide to phase out quantitative tightening (QT) at the next meeting, especially concerning mortgage-backed securities (MBS), to avoid upward pressure on mortgage rates while cutting rates [7] Inflation & Economic Data - The super core inflation rate has accelerated from approximately 0.06% in April to 39% currently [3] - Next week's data releases are critical to determine if full employment has taken precedence over stable pricing in the Fed's dual mandate [1] Fed Balance Sheet - The Fed is still allowing $35 billion of mortgage-backed securities to roll off each month, contributing to upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates [5] - Quantitative tightening, while a passive tightening measure, has likely kept mortgage rates higher than they otherwise would be [8]