Bitcoin: The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same. Why They Will Dump On You.

Market Cycles & Historical Analysis - The analysis suggests that Bitcoin's four-year cycles are likely to continue, despite potential disturbances [1] - Bitcoin's history shows recurring patterns: a halving event, followed by an all-time high, then a dip and reset [2][3] - Past bull markets were driven by different factors: early adopters in 2013, retail investors in 2017, and institutions in 2021 [7][8][12][21] - Each cycle faced hurdles like exchange collapses (Mount Gox), ICO bubble bursts, and regulatory crackdowns [9][10][15][16] - The analysis highlights that human nature and market exuberance contribute to the cyclical pattern [17][19][20][55] Current Market & Future Risks - The current bull market (2025) is driven by favorable US regulations, potential Fed rate cuts, and the approval of spot Bitcoin and ETH ETFs [29][30][31] - Institutions hold over 10% of Bitcoin, potentially buffering volatility [32][33][34] - Risks include short-term pullbacks, profit-taking by institutions, and potential unwinding of leverage in the system [35][36][39] - The analysis suggests that the market is still macro-dependent, and any delays in Fed rate cuts or a flare-up in inflation could cause a violent retracement [42][43] Quantitative Easing (QE) & Tightening (QT) - Quantitative easing involves central banks buying assets, adding money, increasing the money supply, and lowering interest rates to stimulate growth [44][45] - Quantitative tightening involves central banks selling assets or letting them expire, decreasing the money supply, pushing rates up, and slowing growth to curb inflation [45][46] - Historical data shows that Bitcoin can hit all-time highs even as the Fed funds rate goes up [48]