Haines: Markets take a wait and see approach on tariffs

Tariffs and Trade Policy Impact - The market adopts a "wait and see" attitude regarding tariff decisions, anticipating months of observation [2] - Elimination of tariffs is expected to have a significant positive impact on the economy [3] - Initial fears regarding the negative impact of tariffs have not fully materialized [4] - The administration has calibrated its tariff response, adjusting initial announcements [5] - Markets anticipate a resolution to trade disputes somewhere between a "taco trade" (Trump backs down) and a "Waco trade" (the world backs down) [8] Economic Soft War and National Security - Markets are not fully internalizing the threat of a "soft war" [9] - National security is increasingly intertwined with economic security [10] - The US economic program aims to strengthen the economy to withstand potential destabilization efforts [10][11] - An economic soft war is ongoing and expected to continue, presenting opportunities for markets if understood [11] Market Misinterpretations - People tend to overemphasize the Trump administration's business practices [7] - Virtue signaling can hinder understanding of future actions [7]