Treasury counselor Joseph Lavorgna: I don’t buy into this uncertainty argument

Labor Market & Economic Growth - Jolt job openings came in below estimates at just below 72 million versus 74 million expected [1] - The current labor market rate is at the same level as the fourth quarter of 2019, when the Trump economy generated nearly 35% real GDP growth [2] - Capital spending grew over 15% in the first half of the year [3] - Atlanta Fed GDP is forecasting 35% GDP growth after a 3% plus gain in the last quarter [4] - When capital spending trends improve, hiring inevitably follows [6] Tariffs & Fiscal Policy - Tariff revenue could reach $300 billion this year, potentially adding 1% to GDP, leading to a possible 5% growth [9] - The revenues from tariffs are running above a $300 billion annualized rate, potentially hitting $500 billion [10] - The administration believes the courts will rule in favor of the president's ability and authority to implement tariffs [17] - Goods prices within the CPI are up 07% annualized since record tariff collection began in April [20][21] Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve - The economy needs interest rates in line with what are considered neutral, and even the highest dot on the Fed dot plot indicates rates are restrictive [8] - The central tendency of the FOMC's forecast is about 275% to 3%, maybe a shade higher, which is about 150 basis points higher than current rates [12] - There is a need for a wholesale re-evaluation of how the forecast process is done at the Fed, with more robust macroeconomic discussions and varied viewpoints [14][15]