Detrick: It's a healthy market, the baton getting passed around

Market Trends & Sentiment - Tech sector performance is bifurcated, with Alphabet and Apple leading while the rest of the complex lags, indicating potential dispersion in investor sentiment [1][3][4] - Energy and materials sectors have been leading recently, though their impact is limited due to the large size of the tech sector, suggesting a healthy rotation [3] - Large-cap stocks are favored over small-cap stocks [4] Economic Outlook & Jobs Report - The worst of the economy was likely a couple of months prior, coinciding with tariff uncertainties [12] - A jobs report significantly above or below the estimated 75,000 by 10,000 could trigger a market move [11][12] - A much better than expected jobs report might reduce expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts [13] - The Federal Reserve is still expected to cut rates in the coming weeks, but potentially not as many times as anticipated over the next 16 months [13] Market Performance & Seasonality - S&P typically pulls back about 2% on average in September based on the last decade's data, indicating seasonality [6] - After the S&P has been up over 25% over 100 days, the average return after one month is 1%, and after three months is approximately 6% [6] - Historically, three months after a similar market condition, the market has been higher 11 out of 11 times, and a year later, up an average of 13% [7] - The strength seen off the lows is inconsistent with a bear market [8] Bond Market & Credit Conditions - The 30-year yield is up around 5%, the highest in a long time, with long-term yields breaking out [9] - Credit markets are showing virtually no signs of stress, with no warnings in high yield or junk bonds, and credit spreads not broadening out [9][10]