Expect high single-digits earnings growth in 2026, says Citi's Kate Moore

Market Performance & Outlook - The market has experienced a significant rally of approximately 30% since the April lows [1][2] - The industry anticipates market consolidation in the coming month, influenced by seasonality and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve and the potential impact of AI on the labor force [5][6] - The industry expects to end the year higher, despite anticipating a period of consolidation [18] - The industry views that it's reasonable to expect the market to be up a couple of percentage points by the end of this year from current levels [19] Earnings & Growth - The industry expects high single-digit earnings growth for the full year 2025 and believes it's reasonable to expect similar numbers in 2026, even with a potential economic slowdown [7] - The industry's stock market return depends on multiple expansion, which is influenced by the Federal Reserve's actions [9] Interest Rates & Federal Reserve Policy - The industry anticipates a rate cut in September, with December being more likely than October [8] - The industry believes that the Federal Reserve is likely to pause and evaluate data, leading to macro volatility over the next 6 months [9] - The industry believes that expecting a rate cut at every meeting until mid-2026 may be unrealistic [9] Tariffs & Market Sentiment - The market is seeking certainty regarding tariffs, whether the original tariffs announced in April or a future version, to incorporate them into models [13] - The industry believes that the panic surrounding tariffs has subsided, and analysts are revising estimates upward, fading the worst-case scenarios [14]