Why the Supreme Court may not side with Trump over tariffs

Trade Policy & Legal Challenges - The Supreme Court is considering the legality of Trump's AIPA tariffs, which account for a significant portion of the $180 billion+ collected by the government this fiscal year [3] - A ruling against the tariffs could force the Trump administration to offer refunds, potentially causing chaos [3][4] - Experts note that a rapid decision from the Supreme Court is rare, usually requiring a hard deadline [6] - The Supreme Court may side with lower courts, finding that the president lacks the authority to impose these tariffs under the 1977 International Economic Power Emergency Act [9][10] - A base case scenario suggests a 50-65% probability that the Supreme Court will rule against the president's authority [12] Potential Economic Impact - Sectors like furniture, lumber, timber, aircraft, trucking, pharma, and semis could be aggressively hit if the AIPA authority is overruled [13][14] - Domestic importers, like those selling learning materials and companies like John Deere and Caterpillar, want refunds with interest if the tariffs are deemed illegal [17] - Refunds could amount to roughly $150 billion to $300 billion, creating a complicated process for the Treasury [18] - If the Supreme Court rejects the tariffs, Trump could still implement tariffs on specific sectors or pursue Section 301 investigations, similar to those already in place on $350 billion worth of goods from China [19][20] - Congress could grant the president the authority to tariff every single import, potentially costing the average family $2,700 per year [21] Tech Industry & White House - President Trump is hosting top business, political, and tech leaders, including Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, and Tim Cook, at the White House [23][25] - The event is being called the "Rose Garden Club" and is seen as a way for Trump to showcase the remodeled Rose Garden patio [26][27]