'We got trouble right around the corner': what the latest job numbers say about Trump's economy

Economic Indicators & Analysis - Job creation has stalled after four plus years of strong growth, transitioning to a "no hire, no fire" situation [1][2] - Uncertainty surrounding tariffs in May and June contributed to the slowdown in job creation [2] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to cut interest rates due to the softening job market, although inflation data remains a key factor [5] - The economy may be heading towards a period of rising unemployment and rising inflation [27] Labor Market Disparities - Job losses are not uniform across the board, with white men and black women experiencing employment declines since the beginning of the year [7] - Manufacturing has lost jobs since January, contradicting the argument that tariffs would bring manufacturing back to America [8][9] - Government job losses are largely driven by federal government cuts [9] Trade & Tariff Policy - Incompetent and incoherent tariffs are detrimental to the economy, particularly tariffs on inputs like steel and aluminum [12][13] - Steel tariffs implemented in the previous administration led to the loss of approximately 1,000 jobs [10][11] Inflation & Cost of Living - The cost of living remains a primary concern for American families, outweighing the job situation [19] - Over the past five years, food prices have increased by 26%, auto insurance prices by 30-40%, and housing costs by 50% [19][20] - Inflation remains higher than the Fed's target, creating a dilemma between addressing inflation and stimulating the job market [20] Political Implications - The economy matters politically, especially how people feel about their jobs [15] - Frustrations related to high prices and the perceived lack of economic improvement are influencing voters, particularly swing voters who previously supported Biden and then switched back to Trump [24][25]