Prepare for inflation: Back-to-school prices soared, holiday gifts likely will too

Economic Slowdown & Job Market - US job growth significantly underperformed expectations in August, with only 22,000 positions added, compared to the predicted 75,000, and June numbers were revised downward [1] - The unemployment rate slightly increased to 43%, a level unseen since 2021, signaling a potential economic slowdown [2] - US wage growth also experienced a decline, further indicating a weakening economy [2] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting regarding interest rates will be closely watched by the investing community, seeking clues about potential rate cuts due to the weakening job market [3] Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs are impacting companies' free cash flow, forcing them to allocate funds to cover tariff costs, which can lead to job cuts and wage stagnation [4][5] - Companies are cutting back workers due to the financial strain caused by tariffs [5] Inflation & Retail - Increased inflation is anticipated, with back-to-school prices already showing a 75% increase [6] - Holiday season inflation is brewing due to products being imported either before tariffs with high logistics costs or during the implementation of tariffs [6][7] - The market may see a "trade tariff type of skew game" where prices of certain products increase due to higher costs, while cheaper prices may decrease [7] - There will be fewer items on shelves [8]