AI and Productivity - The tech sector is experiencing skyrocketing output alongside contracting employment, a phenomenon unseen in the past 60+ years, indicating increased efficiency [3] - Companies like Coinbase report approximately 40% of their daily code is AI-generated, aiming for over 50% by October [4] - Eight CEO Matteo Franchesy stated that 48% of their data team's code is AI-generated, with rapid AI adoption across the company [5] - Junior roles are declining by 23%, while senior roles are increasing by 14%, suggesting AI is benefiting experienced engineers [7] Economic Outlook - Moody's reports that 33% of US states are already in recession territory [8] - Texas, California, Florida, New York, and North Carolina are responsible for the majority of current US economic growth [8] - The S&P 500's price to book value is higher than during the 2000 dot-com bubble [10] - The odds of a recession on Poly Market have fallen from 65% in May to 8% currently [13] - Nominal GDP has been above 45% for 5 years straight [19] Monetary Policy - There have been 88 rate cuts worldwide year-to-date, the most since 2020, potentially leading to the third-fastest global cutting cycle on record [12] - The Federal Reserve is expected to join the global rate cut cycle [12] Education and Future - The average US student is four full academic years behind the average student in China [24] - A seventh-grade student in the US performs at the same academic standard as a third-grade student in China [24] - Individuals should reject complacency and focus on figuring out their own path in life [27]
NO RECESSION! The US Economy Is Running Too Hot To Slow Down
From The Desk Of Anthony Pomplianoยท2025-09-08 21:00