Worst-case scenarios off the table for Apple, says MoffettNathanson's Craig Moffett

Apple's Valuation and Growth Expectations - The market has priced in a "super cycle" for Apple, dependent on consumers needing better hardware to run AI [9] - Apple's stock, trading at 31-33 times earnings, is considered overvalued unless it achieves faster revenue and earnings growth [8] - Apple's PEG ratio is high compared to other Mag 7 companies, indicating high growth expectations [9] - A normal upgrade cycle may not be sufficient to justify the current stock price [11] AI Strategy and Capital Expenditure - Apple's AI may run more in the cloud than on the phone, which might not drive a super cycle [10] - Apple will increase capital expenditure to invest more aggressively in AI [14] - Apple's capital expenditure is currently low single digits as a percentage of sales, compared to 25% for major hyperscalers [13] iPhone and Hardware - The upcoming iPhone launch is considered inconsequential due to ordinary hardware upgrades [2] - A thinner iPhone might come with less battery life, which may not be desirable for consumers [4]