Morris: The Fed has to balance inflation pressures with a weak labor market

Inflation & Monetary Policy - The market is trying to figure out if PPI and CPI data will be market movers after a soft jobs report and revisions signaling job market weakness [1] - The Fed faces a challenging scenario if CPI data comes in higher than expected, especially with potential goods inflation pressure from tariffs [2] - Last month's CPI data benefited from significant disinflation in one sector; stripping that out reveals a more unsettling number [2][3] - A 29% headline CPI seemed fine for PCE according to JPA Pal, and the focus should be on the month-on-month CPI number to see the impact of tariffs [4][5] - The consensus for the month-on-month CPI number is 03%, and a higher number would be a concern [5][6] AI & Tech Market - Oracle shares are up about 29% with strong numbers and forward guidance, confirming the AI trade is still alive [6] - Sentiment on AI swings regularly, but the firm remains a believer with overweights in US equities and the NASDAQ, driven by AI [7][8] - Forward P/Es for the NASDAQ are a bit above average, but earnings expectations are not rising much more quickly than normal [9][10] - The current earnings trend for tech stocks is considered sustainable, and the multiple is not seen as too high [10]