David Rubenstein: The economy is in reasonable shape

Market Trends & Historical Data - 30 years ago, the Dow started the year under 4,000 and finished around 5,000, compared to today's Dow at approximately 45,000 [2] - 30 years ago, the price of oil was about $11 per barrel [3] - Investors generally view the economy as being in reasonable shape, but are uncertain about the impact of tariffs [21] - The IPO market is loosening up, which is a good sign that the economy is not in big trouble [22] Monetary Policy & Inflation - The market expects the Fed to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points [9][19] - A 50 basis point cut by the Fed would scare the markets, suggesting the economy is weaker than perceived [9] - The Fed's dual mandate includes worrying about both inflation and unemployment [11] - Current inflation is still about 80 basis points above the Fed's 2% target [12] - There is pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates [13] Economic Outlook & Labor Market - The economy is in reasonably good shape, growing reasonably well for its size, though not at 5% annually [14] - The Fed is more likely to reduce by 25 basis points [16] - Unemployment is now a concern, and the economy is weakening a bit [19]