We are seeing tariff prices passing through into inflation data, says JPMorgan's Feroli

Inflation & Monetary Policy - Core PCE number is expected to remain close to 3%, posing a challenge [3] - The labor market shows signs of weakening, influencing the Federal Reserve's considerations [3][4][5] - Market anticipates the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates by 50 basis points in September, but now expects three rate cuts this year instead of two [7] Market Sentiment & Performance - Bullish market sentiment is likely to persist, supported by new all-time highs in the US and overseas [6][8] - Investors are actively seeking reasons to sell stocks, but market conditions may continue to support and propel them [8] Economic Factors & Consumer Behavior - AI is projected to contribute approximately 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth through increased capital expenditure [9] - Wealth gains primarily benefit upper-income consumers, with limited impact on lower-income consumers [9][10] - Tighter inventories, partly due to tariffs, may sustain price pressures during the holiday shopping season [11] Retail & Home Furnishings - The home furnishings sub-industry within the S&P 1500, driven by companies like Wayfair, RH, and William Sonoma, has shown strong performance [12][13] - Lower interest rates and people spending more time at home are driving upgrades to home interiors [13]