CNBC's Rick Santelli on what the latest inflation data spells for Fed policy

Labor Market Analysis - Initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, reaching 263,000 instead of the anticipated 212,000, potentially signaling a weakening labor market [2] - The last time initial claims were over 250,000 was in October 2024, indicating a significant period of labor market strength prior to this [2] - The labor market's potential weakening could complicate the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [3] - The current labor market dynamic is described as "no higher no fire," suggesting a period of unusual stability or stagnation [10] - Concerns are raised about the accuracy of jobs data and the need for improved data collection methods [11][12][13] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation figures show a Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) of 2.5% to 2.6% [3] - The speaker suggests the Federal Reserve should consider a 0.25% rate hike if the labor market weakens and inflation remains persistent [4] - The speaker believes the current inflation is not primarily driven by tariffs but by systemic factors and rising costs in services and everyday goods [5][6][7] - The Treasury Secretary's view is mentioned, suggesting that if the Fed's data is inaccurate, more rate cuts may be warranted [11] Market Observations - There's a significant amount of money on the sidelines in T-bills [8] - The speaker, identifying as a technician, prioritizes Fibonacci analysis over fundamentals in stock market analysis [8] - Gold has broken its inflation-adjusted all-time high, signaling a potentially strong investment [14][15]