Flexport CEO Ryan Peterson: Refunds could be coming if court rules against IEEPA tariffs

Market Trends & Trade Dynamics - Peak shipping season is underway, but tariffs and potential court rulings introduce uncertainty for importers [1] - A secondary market exists for tariff refunds, trading around 25% of the dollar, indicating speculation on the Supreme Court's decision [2] - Another secondary market on poly market is trading around 50% [3] - Container shipments from China are down approximately 10% year-over-year, while overall container volume increased by 1.5%, suggesting diversification of supply chains to countries like Vietnam and India [7] - Reciprocal tariffs on countries like India have increased, potentially catching companies off guard after repositioning their supply chains [8] Company Performance & Compliance - Customs brokerage and compliance gross profit is up 99% year-over-year, reflecting increased demand for compliance assistance [9] Economic Indicators & Challenges - Recent downgrades of FedEx and UPS, along with weaker Q2 shipping of cardboard and packaging materials, raise concerns about a potential economic downturn [4] - Shipping data is currently volatile due to tariffs, making it difficult to use as a reliable economic indicator [5] - Air freight prices are low due to the end of de minimis shipping, impacting companies like FedEx and UPS [6] - Companies are exploring ways to mitigate tariffs, including potentially non-compliant practices like factories underreporting the value of goods [7][9] - Customs tariff revenue collection may be lower than expected due to enforcement challenges [9]